| |
| |
|
Stocks & Mutual Funds Information |
|
|
|
Trade Stocks for Real
I read a comment by a forum member on another site earlier today that suggested that every investor should back test their system for at least twenty years. I disagree and will now tell you why. Back testing and paper trading seem to be the most over emphasized techniques offered by market theorists, educational elite, market novices and/or market fakes. While learning the pure basics, I can see why a novice investor may want to paper trade; to see the results of the developing system but I will warn that these results are completely false. The results will not contain the emotional decisions that go along with risking your own cash. Anyone and I mean anyone can paper trade successfully. It's simple, place a trade and hope it goes up and if it doesn't, you have no worries because you can't lose. The emotional imbalance that occurs when you really start to lose money is not present. Don't fool yourself by believing the results of your paper trading or virtual simulation portfolio. These things may give you some confidence in your system but they don't prove a damn thing in the real world. The real world, specifically the stock market, is run by emotional human beings. People make decisions that are irrational and base their trading decisions on fear and greed. Paper trading lacks fear and greed because there is no gain and no loss; therefore there is no consequence to deal with. Don't worry about back testing for 20 years because historical back testing is never very accurate. The most accurate testing is real time. If you can back test real trades (actual trades that you have made in the past), then this would be just as good as real time testing (or forward testing). Back testing can get you somewhat of an idea of how your system will perform but there is no emotional attachments to this type of testing so it is not realistically accurate. We all know emotions are tied to our decisions in the markets so we can only get accurate results through real testing. Learn to ignore the talking heads and the people on TV and that internet chat room that claim they are up over 1000% trading a fake account. What really makes me laugh is the person that sets up a virtual trading scenario and then allows each participant to trade $500,000 or more in their account. If you are going to trade a fake account, at least keep it real so you try to learn something, maybe money management. I setup one virtual trading competition a few years back and I only allowed each participant to start with $10,000, a reasonable amount, an amount that most people start trading with. The competition was fun but it was not real for me or the others. I didn't care what risks I took and I never had a problem pulling the trigger which does happen in real life. I did try to keep my trades in line with my real life account but it varied slightly. I witnessed other traders making 20 trades per day or 20-50 trades per week. This is not real because the commissions alone, even with a discount broker will wipe you out. I did allow margin because I use margin in my account but I saw other investors abusing the fake power of margin in their virtual account, again, playing the game for fun instead of learning something valuable. As a fellow investor, keep testing your system in real time and you will know what works and what doesn't based on real trades, not simulations. Professors and the like teach theories while investors actually do the trading! Back testing may convince some people but I am only convinced with what works now, in real time. Besides, why would I waste my time playing for fake money when I can learn and do for real? Back testing may be good for some people but I have been testing my systems in real time since the day I started investing seriously. Currently, I am testing the $60-$100 theory using options in my newest account. I will not have concrete data on this system for another year or two, most likely two years down the road. I could back test the system but how will that help me realistically going forward? It won't, it may show me some probabilities and the possible expectancy of the system but it won't guarantee anything until I place a position for real. If you want to test a system, open an account with real money, even a minimal amount and give it a try. Make sure you use enough money to allow emotions to be attached to your decisions. Without the emotional attachment, you are cheating yourself and your potential system. Chris Perruna - http://www.marketstockwatch.com Chris is the founder and president of MarketStockWatch.com, an internet community that teaches you how to invest your money with solid rules. We don't stop at just showing you our daily and weekly screens, we teach you how to make you own screens through education. Through our philosophy, you will be able to create your own methods and styles to become successful.
MORE RESOURCES:
Stocks-Mutual-Funds - Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
The Information Age It is wonderful to be alive in the information age. We know in a matter of seconds the change in the value of gold in Switzerland, the death of a world leader or the birth of a peasant in Israel. The Stock Trading Plan - Why You Must Have One To Trade Successfully This is the continuing story of our two imaginary traders, Peter and Paul.Peter is a professional trader, Paul is not. Its A Bull, Its A Bear, Its Suptertrader! The higher the market goes the more confusing are the "experts". In the September 14 issue of Investor's Business Daily newspaper we find the great prognosticators such as:Sheldon Jacobs, editor of No-Load Fund Investor newsletter quoted that he is recommending having more cash in your portfolio. Prospering with Mutual Funds: How Anyone can "Afford" an Investment Advisor Recently I was invited to appear on a live CNNfn television show to discuss my article "How to evaluate Load vs. No Load Mutual Funds. Dont Ask Your Broker Unfortunately, most of you who are reading my column are suffering some substantial losses in the stock market. Whether it is mutual funds or individual stocks everything with mighty few exceptions is going down. The Golden Goose is Sick It is finally catching up with them. The brokerage companies I mean. Stock Market Diversification In one of my previous articles (Investing in the stock market -9 powerful tips), tip number one was:1. Do not spread your money too thin. What To Buy? Now that you have some money burning a hole in your pocket and the stock market is going up you have decided to buy some stock or maybe a mutual fund, but you have the momentous decisions to what to buy.At this point you have three decisions to make besides which equity to buy:1. The Inside Scoop on Mutual Fund Rip Offs The bear market that showed up at the end of 2000 has every brokerage house-as well as the entire mutual fund industry-scrambling to find creative ways to boost both their image and bottom line. Unfortunately, this is often at the investors' expense. Trading Tips No 5: Stock Trading Curve Drawdown and Commitment All stock trading and investing methods must deal with the inevitable drawdown from the most recent peak in one's stock trading curve to a bottom before reversing and making a new high. Seasoned systems traders are well familiar with the drawdown phenomenon and the importance of drawdown as a percentage of annual average returns in evaluating a trading system. Selling The stock market has been going up for more than 7 months and many investors who held on through the big crash of 2000 are seeing their portfolios get back some of what had disappeared. Is now the time to sell those equities that are 'even' with what you paid for them? No. No Load Mutual Funds or Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs)? If you are fed up with early redemption charges and ever increasing mutual fund management fees on top of bad-performing fund managers, read on. There is a quiet revolution going on in the no-load mutual fund industry and you, the individual investor, may benefit from it greatly. Kick The Tires Before you buy another car you walk around the lot, kick the tires, slam the doors and look at the mileage indicator. That's an odometer. Parachute Investing Ever jumped out of an airplane? It's OK ifyou have on a parachute. Pretty dumb if you don't. Stock Market Investing: Knowing When (and when not) to Sell One of the greatest challenges of investing in stocks is developing a "sell discipline". Some of the most adept investors struggle with the decision of when to sell. Laws and Efficiencies and Theories of Diminishing Returns The basis of diminishing return discussions surround such simple notions; that when you have a very fast aircraft, you also have coefficients of drag issues. When you are building a quarter mile car and want to go faster you must realize that for every tenth of a second you need to lose 100 lbs. Market Globalization Just 30 years ago the stock market was a shadow of what it is today. There were many fewer shareholders and the daily volume was a fraction of what it is at present. A Common Misconception about Stock Prices I cringe every time I hear a novice investor tell me that they only purchase low priced stocks because they offer higher potential gains. A common phase I hear is "I like to buy $1 and $2 stocks because they can double easily and I will make a 100% profit". The Secret Method to Selecting a Winning Trading System Every successful trader has a winning system. There are of course, as many systems out there, as there are traders. This Market Is Different All of the talking heads have been telling us that this market is different. You are going to have to be patient and soon (hopefully in your lifetime) the DOW and the Nasdaq will be back at their old highs.
|
Sponsors: Chicago Paving Contractor | Remanufactured VTL | Religious Statues | Search Engine Specialist
