| |
| |
|
Stocks & Mutual Funds Information |
|
|
|
This Market Is Different
All of the talking heads have been telling us that this market is different. You are going to have to be patient and soon (hopefully in your lifetime) the DOW and the Nasdaq will be back at their old highs. They cite all the statistics about how the economy is improving - consumers are spending, the consumer confidence index looks OK, unemployment is getting better, blah, blah, blah. Those trees are all nice, but they better step back and look at the forest. It's on fire and going up in smoke. The major trend has been down since the beginning of 2000 and is continuing with only occasional brief upward movements. The Dow lost 6% in 2000 and another 7% in 2001 and so far this year is off almost 8%. I won't mention the Nasdaq. That is ugly. From 1931 to 1951 the economy doubled. The Gross Domestic Product was up 100% yet the stock market did nothing for 20 years. What few investors that were left after the '29 Crash made their money from dividends not stock price appreciation. It took 25 years for the stock market to go back up to the 1929 high. Why are we in a bear market that can last for many years when things look so good? There does not seem to be a correlation between a good economy and stock prices. For more than 100 years the P/E ratio for the S&P500 index has been about 15. Today it is 41. That is figured on the earnings of a company paying you back your money in 41 years. YEARS! Are you kidding? I'll need my money before that. Very simply this is telling you that the stock market is very over-valued. Either corporate productivity must increase dramatically or stock prices must come down. Right now it looks like the latter is happening. So far about $6 trillion (that's with a 'T') has vanished from stockholders portfolios these last 2 years. Nobody else got it. It's just gone. It was all paper profit anyway. Your broker tells you you don't have a loss until you sell and not to worry as the market always comes back - except when it doesn't. Since 1920 there have 3 major bull markets that have lasted about 16 years. The last one started about 1982 and ended at 2000. Each one of the bulls has been followed by a sideways to down market for the next 16 years. I am no soothsayer, but this has all the makings of one of those 16-year periods. What to do? There is only one thing that is prudent until the carnage stops. Sell out of all stocks and stock mutual funds except no-load bond funds. (It is not too late to sell.) There are many good ones such as Government, International and Mortgage Backed no-load bond funds with varying lengths of maturity. It may not be exciting like the 1998-99 run up, but you will have your money when the dust settles. This market is different. It's a bear. Al Thomas' best selling book, "If It Doesn'tGo Up, Don't Buy It!" has helped thousandsof people make money and keep their profits withhis simple 2-step method. Read the first chapterto receive his market letter for 3 months atwww.mutualfundmagic.com to discover why he'sthe man that Wall Street does not want you toknow. Comments to al@mutualfundmagic.com Copyright Albert W. Thomas All rights reserved.
MORE RESOURCES:
Stocks-Mutual-Funds - Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Where Is The Rabbit? We need a rabbit!This was a pretty horrible week for the market with two 100-point days and Friday closing on the lows.During these past few days Sir Alan told us things are looking up and the economy is basically strong. Intervention Intervention. Now don't let that big word scare you. Momentum One of the basic laws of physics states that a body in motion will continue in motion in the direction it is going until interrupted by another force.That basic physics law also applies to stocks and mutual funds. Diversification Wall Street's watchword has always been diversification, but what does it mean and why do they say it?The standard Wall Street definition is flexible because each broker or financial planner will vary the portfolio based on your age and income. They say that the younger you are the more risk you should take and the older you are the less risk. Will the Stock Market be Lower in October? The stock market often closes a week in the middle of a "perceived primary-trend range." SPX closed at about 1,234 Fri, which is between a multi-year Fibonacci level at 1,253 (i. Choosing An Investment Stock Broker If you want one.And I don't recommend any broker with whom to trade who will be giving you advice on what to buy and sell. Price to Earnings Ratio - P/E After finding the price of a particular stock, usually the next number everyone looks at is the P/E ratio.P/E is the ratio of a company's share price to its per-share earnings. Making a Stock Watch List I am taking the time to help others learn the basics in evaluating stocks for investment using both fundamental and technical analysis. Both tools are equally important in making serious decisions with your hard earned CASH!If you wish to invest in stocks, treat it like a business, NOT A HOBBY. Attitude Is [Almost] Everything I often play a little game with myself when I have to go shopping; to the post office or on other errands.Sometimes I will just go about my business and make little comment or eye contact with the person serving me. Mutual Funds are Dead You may have wondered why your mutual funds have been going down for the past 2 years. The answer is very simple, but not one you will hear from Wall Street as they want you to send money. Stock Options Trading Strategies - Lean Professional stock options traders use the term lean to refer to one's perception about the directional strength of the stock. When you own a stock option and intend to hold it for a period of time, you are aware that you will probably be holding it while it goes up and while it goes down. Cash Is A Position I go to the Money Show every year to visit withfriends who have booths and are speakers. Thenwhen folks are filing out of lectures I listento their comments on what I know the speaker hasbeen saying. Investing in Dividend Paying Stocks I was recently interviewed for a press release through a financial question and answer format. One of the questions asked of me in the interview was:Where do you think the stock market is headed over the next five years?My Answer!Charles M. You Wont Like This Why? Because I am going to shatter your conventional wisdom as I have many times in previous columns about the lies that Wall Street continues to tell you. This time we are going to go deeper into the economy to unearth the truth about lies the politicians are telling you. Why Change Funds? On November 17 I bought 7 different mutual funds and went to a 100% invested position. One of the funds I bought was Robertson Stevens Information Age (RSIFX) and it has made money as have the other six. The Value of Stocks of a Company The debate rages all over Eastern and Central Europe, in countries in transition as well as in Western Europe. It raged in Britain during the 80s: Is privatization really the robbery in disguise of state assets by a select few, cronies of the political regime? Margaret Thatcher was accuse of it - and so was the Agency of Transformation in the Republic of Macedonia. Invest In The Stock Market For The RIGHT Reason, Using The RIGHT Choices Invest in the stock market for the RIGHT reason, using the RIGHTchoices!Investing in the stock market is not purchasing a stock at 25 dollars a share, hoping it will go to 35 so you can sell it, then hoping it will drop back to 25 so you can buy it back, so that you can sell it again at 35, and so on and so forth.In my opinion, that is gambling. Prosperity It has fallen upon the consumer to make our economy strong. All the politicians, economists and talking heads on TV are telling him (that's you and me) to get out there and spend your money. Emotional Trading The single most expensive stock market trades are those made with emotions, but, of course, you are not an emotional trader are you?Before you bought that stock, mutual fund or Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) you did your research to be sure that what you were buying would return a good profit over the long haul. You bought it and over time you look at it less and less. Trading Tips No 5: Stock Trading Curve Drawdown and Commitment All stock trading and investing methods must deal with the inevitable drawdown from the most recent peak in one's stock trading curve to a bottom before reversing and making a new high. Seasoned systems traders are well familiar with the drawdown phenomenon and the importance of drawdown as a percentage of annual average returns in evaluating a trading system.
|
Sponsors: Chicago Paving Contractor | Remanufactured VTL | Religious Statues | Search Engine Specialist
