| |
| |
|
Stocks & Mutual Funds Information |
|
|
|
How We Eluded The Bear Of 2000
The date October 13, 2000 will forever be embedded in my mind. It was the day after our mutual fund trend tracking indicator had broken its long-term trend line and I sold 100% of my clients' invested positions (and my own) and moved the proceeds to the safety of money market accounts. Some people thought we were nuts, but I had come to trust the numbers. The shake out in the stock market, which started in April 2000, had all major indexes coming off their highs, violently followed by just as strong rally attempts. The roller coaster ride was so extreme that even usually slow moving mutual funds behaved as erratically as tech stocks. By October, the markets had settled into a definable downtrend, at least according to my indicators. We sat safely on the sidelines and watched the unfolding of what is now considered to be one of the worst bear markets in history. By April 2001 the markets really had taken a dive, but Wall Street analysts, brokers and the financial press continued to harp on the great buying opportunity this presented. Buying on dips, dollar cost averaging and "V" type recovery were continuously hyped to the unsuspecting public. By the end of the year, and after the tragic events of 911, the markets were even lower and people began to wake up to the fact that the investing rules of the '90s were no longer applicable. Stories of investors having lost in excess of 50% of their portfolio value were the norm. Why bring this up now? To illustrate the point that I have continuously propounded throughout the 90s; that a methodical, objective approach with clearly defined Buy and Sell signals is a "must" for any investor. To say it more bluntly: If you buy an investment and you don't have a clear strategy for taking profits if it goes your way, or taking a small loss if it goes against you, you are not investing; you are merely gambling. The last 2-1/2 years clearly illustrate that it is as important to be out of the market during bad times, as it is to be in the market during good times. Want proof? According to InvesTech's monthly newsletter it turns out that, measuring from 1928 to 2002, if you started with $10 and you followed the famous buy-and-hold strategy, that $10 would become $10,957. If you somehow missed the best 30 months, your $10 would only be $154. However, if you managed to miss the 30 worst months, your $10 would be $1,317,803! Thus, my point: Missing the worst periods has profound impact on long-run compounding. There are times when you end up better off by being out of the market. Interestingly enough, if you missed the 30 best months and the 30 worst months, your $10 would still be worth $18,558, which is 80% higher than the buy-and-hold strategy. This all comes about because stock prices generally go down faster than they go up. Wall Street and most people tend to overlook the value of minimizing loss, and that is exactly why the bear demolished more than 50% of many peoples' portfolios while I and those who trusted my advice escaped the worst of the beast's rampage. About The Author Ulli Niemann is an investment advisor and has been writing about objective, methodical approaches to investing for over 10 years. He eluded the bear market of 2000 and has helped hundreds of people make better investment decisions. To find out more about his approach and his FREE Newsletter, please visit: www.successful-investment.com; ulli@successful-investment.com
MORE RESOURCES:
Stocks-Mutual-Funds - Google News |
|
|
|
RELATED ARTICLES
Do You Know What is the Single MOST Critical Mistake in Trading the Stock Market?? Well maybe that's overstating it a little, but it's certainly one of the most important.It is?(drum roll please)? "the need to be right"!Now that probably wasn't what you were expecting. Investing in the Stock Market - When To! Is really not as important as to how you invest in the stock market. And how you invest in the stock market should take into consideration what goals you are setting for that stock market investment. Staying Sane While Wall Street Crashes Everybody is riding the Wall Street Roller coaster. Even if you are not invested, the headlines scream out one word: PANIC!It's hard not to join in the panicking. Stocks Options Trading Let's assume that you want to make some serious money and you have chosen to take things into your own hands rather than depend upon a "professional trader" to make your trading decisions. This is usually only recomended if you can afford to lose the money that you are trading with, and you appreciate the fact that there is much more upside potential with this added risk. Is Your Garage Full Of Junk? I have a 2-car garage. There are nice shelves on one side and a good practical workbench with a vice on the other side. Trade Stocks for Real I read a comment by a forum member on another site earlier today that suggested that every investor should back test their system for at least twenty years. I disagree and will now tell you why. Stock Market Diversification In one of my previous articles (Investing in the stock market -9 powerful tips), tip number one was:1. Do not spread your money too thin. Why Stock Is More Risky Than Options! You probably have been told that options are risky. Even worse, that you can lose your shirt trading them!Well, what is the truth?Let's take a look at stock ownership. How to Find Value in No Load Mutual Fund Investing What are you thinking when it comes to your no load mutual fund selections? Are you saving pennies and sacrificing dollars?Are you spending your time looking at expense ratios, analyzing Morningstar ratings and searching for funds with low fees and no 12b1 charges? If you are like most people, you know these things in and out. You've spent hours evaluating them, and your chosen mutual funds cost little to purchase and maintain. 365/7/24 What does it take to be a stock trader? It takes a total mentalcommitment to the task. It becomes a complete way of life. Dispelling Illusions of the Stock Market How can you dispel an illusion unless you look directly at it? The magician distracts the eye with one hand while he does his manipulation with the other. You are looking in the wrong place and not seeing what is actually happening. The Bottom? Every day I hear someone on CNBC proclaim that "this is the bottom" and you should get in there and buy all those "bargains". "The valuations of the DOW stocks are a steal. Where Is The Beef? Where is the beef? Or maybe it should be where is the bull? Market, that is? The chief investment strategists and analysts of the major brokerage houses have been promising us a new bull market.So far the bull hasn't come in from the distant pasture. The 1% Solution You probably know the story of Sherlock Holmes and the 7% solution. He had a drug addiction. Hill of Hope Just about now everyone is confused as to which way the stock market is going to go - up or down. For the past 3 years it has been headed south, but the Wall Street experts have told us that the market never goes down 4 years in a row so this has to be an up year. How To Buy And Hold One of the most believed bits of conventional wisdom from Wall Street is to Buy and Hold. Any stock or mutual fund should be put away for eternity and never sold. Moving Averages Every day on CNBC-TV they show a 200-day moving average line superimposed on the stock price history. It seems they give great credence to this manufactured line as it represents 10 months of price action. Wal-Mart: Discount Store, Discounted Stock? As GuruFocus updates the stock buys and sells of gurus, Wal-Mart (WMT), the discount retail giant, stands out as the stock with a high ValueRank (7 out of 10). Just recently, Clipper Fund's James Gipson and T. Mutual Fund Ball and Chain The broker told me not to sell because the mutual fund I owned had a 2% redemption fee and they would penalize me if I did.I got to thinking about it and did some simple math to see what that would cost me if I sold. Robert Rodriguez Weathers the Stock Market Robert Rodriguez likes to buy stocks at their lows. When there are not enough stocks hitting new lows, he closes his fund and piles up cash.
|
Sponsors: Chicago Paving Contractor | Remanufactured VTL | Religious Statues | Search Engine Specialist
